Crowd estimates figure in most news reports after a big mobilization or event. Every time a sizeable mass action has been conducted, whether in Mendiola, Ayala, or Edsa, conflicting estimates are issued that either downplay or magnify the data. The politics of the count is obvious as strength in numbers is a statement in itself.

Is there some way to effectively quantify the size of the crowd in a mobilization?

The most common and practicable way is to measure the area covered by the event and count, according to some density estimate, the number of those who attended at a certain time. This estimation is most easily done with overhead shots and aerial surveys. Although it would tend to have a bias against those who are under some shelter or inside a building, this estimation would give a rough guide on the size of the crowd.

Crowd density estimates stem from the fact that people would each tend to occupy around a quarter of a square meter in a very crowded space. This translates to around four individuals comfortably standing within a square meter. Lower crowd density means a larger space between each person. We should also note that crowd density is usually not uniform, except in very crowded areas, and will taper off from the central hub of activity in the mobilization.

The time when the estimate was made is also important as crowds are dynamic systems. Making an estimate at only one point in time can lead to a different count if it is taken at the peak of the event or near the end. Over a period of time, the crowd size can swell or ebb due to people coming in and out of the assembly area.

A relatively organized contingent would have their members limit this movement both for security and to provide organization in a big mobilization. Marshalls are usually assigned to monitor people coming in the hanay and to limit members that loiter around. Militant groups such as those under BAYAN has this honed to an art and thus their numbers stay relatively intact until the end of the program.

Other methods include counting directly from real time closed circuit TV (CCTV) which the PNP has announced they would deploy. This is difficult at best as the visual information in these CCTV is limited due to its small field of view. Some other methods would extrapolate the number from the amount of artifacts (read: trash) left by the crowd. It is also common practice for the organizers to have reports of attendance from their contingents from which they empirically base their attendance estimates.

The Ayala area where the broad anti-Con-Ass mobilizations were held can be divided into five major areas. Section A is the area of Ayala going toward Herrera. Section B is the central area of the intersection, section C is along Paseo de Roxas facing the stage, section D is the side of Ayala towards Makati Avenue/EDSA and section E is the area behind the stage. Additional side areas such as the corner underneath HSBC building and other corners are collectively taken together. Note that sidewalks and other establishments are not included even though there are people that would stand there during the mobilizations.

The maximum that these areas can hold at 4 per square meter would be 89,000 individuals. Engr. Mon Ramirez of AGHAM computed the maximum to reach 300,000 if we include the whole stretch of Ayala from De La Rosa until EDSA, the whole of Paseo and Makati Avenue.

One should also include in the total estimate a factor that would take into account those people that came in late as others were leaving the event. In last year’s rally this +greplacement+h crowd maintained the crowd size relatively stable until early evening. Makati employees and other groups replaced those who left early in the program. We can use a +greplacement+h factor of 20 percent to include those who came in late as well as those who were not counted by the estimation (in the establishments, on the sidewalks, etc).

If it was the crowd size that is to be the organizers’ target, areas like EDSA or multiple staging areas would be good places to assemble instead of Ayala. This shows that the message in the mobilizations against the Con-Ass at Ayala is the breadth of forces that were mobilized in addition to taking a count of the size of the crowd. The groups of religious, business, militants and the opposition attending the rallies have broadened since a few years ago. Who protested is as important as to how many came in the rally.